Week 13 NFL Betting Primer

Welcome to the home of the 2020 NFL Betting Primer – your source for the best NFL stats and trends that you (probably) can’t find anywhere else on the internet.

Each week, I’ll comb through just about everything there is to look at and provide a quick list of my favorite nuggets for every single game to help you with your handicapping. A fresh article will be posted each Thursday, so keep an eye on my Twitter feed where I’ll post as soon as it’s ready.

Aside from my favorite trends, I like to look at stats such as yards per play, third-down conversion rate, red-zone TD scoring percentage, time of possession, sacks/QB pressures and turnovers. If I see some outliers that provide one team or one side of the total with a big edge over the other, I’ll be sure to share.

Keep in mind for the first few weeks of the season that many trends and stats need to be taken with a grain of salt because they don’t always carry over to a new season. All stats will become more relevant the deeper we get into a season as bigger sample sizes are more ideal for handicapping.

How to use betting trends:

It’s pretty simple – make sure there’s some logic to back up the trend. If the trend dates back to the early 1990s, spanning many coaching staffs and hundreds of players coming and going, then it doesn’t carry much weight. Sure, it makes for an interesting historical stat, but it’s not something to base a bet on.

The same goes for absurd trends crossing multiple variables like a team’s record in retractable-roof stadiums vs non-divisional opponents in the late-afternoon time slot in November. That foolishness is nothing more than coincidence and you won’t find trends like that in this article.

HOWEVER, some teams excel or follow a consistent pattern in certain situations and it’s important to consider these spots, especially for teams with long-standing head coaches and QBs and also in divisional matchups.

Betting trends should simply be used as a starting point for your handicap. Remember that oddsmakers always adjust. You should always have stats to support a trend if you’re betting on it to continue because every matchup needs to be looked at individually.

With that out of the way, LET’S GET RIGHT INTO THE ACTION!

Week 13 NFL Stats and Trends:

New Orleans at Atlanta
  • The Saints are second in yards allowed per rush attempt. The Falcons are 30th in yards per rush attempt.
  • The Saints lead the NFL in net yards per play over the last three games. The Falcons are tied for 28th in this span.
  • Over the last three games, the Saints are second in both red-zone TD scoring percentage and opponent red-zone TD scoring %.
  • The Saints rank second in yards per play allowed. The Falcons are 31st.
  • New Orleans is third in opponent completion %. Matt Ryan is 24th in completion %.
  • The Saints’ average scoring margin is 5.9 points higher on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Saints’ last four games. (Avg combined score: 37.0)
  • The Saints are 8-0 SU in their last eight games. (Avg winning margin: 13.38)
  • The Saints are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games on the road.
  • The Saints are 8-0 SU in their last eight games vs divisional opponents. (Avg winning margin: 15.5)
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Falcons’ last five games. (Avg combined score: 46.0)
  • The Falcons are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as home underdogs.
  • The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after an ATS win.
  • The Saints are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games vs the Falcons.
Detroit at Chicago
  • The Bears are third in opponent third-down conversion %. The Lions are 26th in this category offensively. Chicago is 31st in third-down offense.
  • Chicago is second in opponent red-zone TD scoring %, but 28th in this category offensively.
  • Bears home games have had an average combined score of 36 points, which is the second-lowest mark in the NFL. Lions road games have averaged 12.9 fewer points than home games.
  • The Bears are second in opponent completion %. Matthew Stafford ranks 27th in completion %.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Lions’ last five games. (Avg combined score: 51.8)
  • The Lions are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games on the road.
  • The Lions are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on the road.
  • The Lions are 0-9 SU in their last nine games vs divisional opponents. (Avg losing margin: 8.78)
  • The total has gone UNDER in 17 of the Lions’ last 24 games vs their division on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Bears’ last eight games. (Avg combined score: 41.25)
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Bears’ last six games at home. (Avg combined score: 34.83)
  • The Bears are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Bears are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Lions’ last eight games on the road vs the Bears.
Cleveland at Tennessee
  • Cleveland’s average margin is 13.7 points lower on the road compared to at home.
  • The Browns are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games on the road.
  • The Browns are 3-30 SU in their last 33 games as road underdogs.
  • The Browns are 1-15 SU in their last 16 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone OVER in nine of the Titans’ last 12 games at home. (Avg combined score: 56.25)
  • The Titans are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games as a favorite.
Cincinnati at Miami
  • These teams are 25th and 30th in yards per play.
  • The Dolphins are first in opponent third-down conversion %. The Bengals are 29th in this category offensively and last over their last three games.
  • The Dolphins are fourth in opponent completion %. Brandon Allen has a career completion % of 49.6%.
  • The Bengals are last in net yards per play on the road.
  • The Bengals have allowed the second-most sacks this season. The Dolphins have the third-highest blitz % in the NFL.
  • The Bengals are 0-17-1 SU in their last 18 games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 9.83)
  • The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games at home.
  • The Dolphins are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games as home favorites.
  • The Dolphins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The Dolphins are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a double-digit favorite. The last time they were a double-digit favorite was in 2009.
Jacksonville at Minnesota
  • The Vikings are tied for third in net yards per play over their last three games. The Jaguars are last in the NFL in this span.
  • The Jaguars are last in yards per play allowed. The Vikings are second overall in yards per play and first at home.
  • The Vikings average 6.5 more points per game at home compared to on the road.
  • The Jaguars are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games. (Avg losing margin: 10.5)
  • The Jaguars are 0-6 SU in their last six games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 8.83)
  • The total has gone OVER in the Vikings’ last seven games at home. (Avg combined score: 58.43)
  • The Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as home favorites.
  • The Vikings are 20-5 SU in their last 25 games at home vs teams with losing records.
Las Vegas at NY Jets
  • The Raiders are third in third-down conversion %. The Jets are 26th in opponent third-down conversion %.
  • The Jets rank last in the NFL in net yards per play at home.
  • The Raiders are sixth in opponent completion %. Sam Darnold ranks 30th in completion %.
  • The Jets are last in opponent completion %. Derek Carr is fourth in completion %.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Raiders’ last 11 games. (Avg combined score: 55.55)
  • The Raiders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Jets’ last seven games. (Avg combined score: 39.71)
  • The Jets are 0-11 SU in their last 11 games. (Avg losing margin: 15.45)
  • The Jets are 0-6 SU in their last six games at home. (Avg losing margin: 12.5)
  • The Raiders are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road vs the Jets. (Avg losing margin: 13.83)
Indianapolis at Houston
  • The Colts are fourth in yards allowed per rush attempt. The Texans are 28th in yards per rush attempt.
  • The Colts are seventh in yards per play allowed. The Texans are 30th.
  • The Texans average the fourth-fewest penalty yards per game. The Colts average the seventh-most.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Colts’ last seven games. (Avg combined score: 56.57)
  • The Colts are 7-2 SU in their last nine games as a favorite.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Colts’ last five games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs their division on the road.
  • The Texans are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog.
  • The Texans are 5-16 SU in their last 21 games as home underdogs.
  • The Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs their division at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Texans’ last seven games vs their division at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Colts’ last eight games vs the Texans. (Avg combined score: 42.75)
  • The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four games on the road vs the Texans.
LA Rams at Arizona
  • Rams road games average 14 more points than their home games. Cardinals home games have averaged 13.4 more points than their road games.
  • The Rams lead the NFL in net yards per play on the road. They also average 5.7 more points per game on the road.
  • These teams are fourth and 11th in red-zone TD scoring %. The Rams have scored a TD on a league-high 87.50% of red-zone trips over their last three games, but are 27th in red-zone defense in this span.
  • Over the last three games, these teams are second and fourth in yards per play allowed.
  • The Rams average the third-fewest penalty yards per game. The Cardinals average the fifth-most.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Rams’ last eight games. (Avg combined score: 39.75)
  • The Rams are 16-6 SU in their last 22 games as road favorites.
  • The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs their division on the road.
  • The Rams are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after an ATS loss.
  • The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Cardinals’ last 14 games vs their division at home.
  • The Rams are 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games vs the Cardinals. (Avg winning margin: 23.17)
  • The visiting team is 8-2 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 games in this matchup.
New England at LA Chargers
  • The Patriots are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Patriots’ last seven games on the road. (Avg combined score: 49.57)
  • The Chargers are 30th in yards allowed per rush attempt. The Patriots are eighth in yards per rush attempt.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Chargers’ last eight games. (Avg combined score: 58.5)
  • The Patriots are 10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog.
  • The Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after an ATS win.
  • The Patriots are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games on the West Coast.
  • The Chargers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games.
  • The Chargers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The Patriots are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games vs the Chargers. (Avg winning margin: 9.4)
Philadelphia at Green Bay
  • The Packers lead the NFL in net yards per play at home. Their average scoring margin is 7 points higher at home.
  • Green Bay is fourth in yards per play. The Eagles are 29th.
  • The Packers rank fourth in opposing QB completion % over their last three games. Carson Wentz is 31st in completion %.
  • The Packers are 25th in yards allowed per rush attempt. The Eagles are third in yards per rush attempt.
  • The Eagles have allowed 46 sacks this season, which is the most in the NFL.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Eagles’ last five games. (Avg combined score: 39.6)
  • The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after an ATS win.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Eagles’ last seven games in the late afternoon.
  • The Packers are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Packers’ last five games. (Avg combined score: 55.2)
  • The Packers are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games at home.
  • The Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Eagles’ last nine games vs the Packers. (Avg combined score: 44.44)
NY Giants at Seattle
  • The Giants allow the second-highest QB pressure %. Seattle ranks fourth in sack % over its last three games.
  • These teams are third and seventh in yards allowed per rush attempt.
  • The Giants are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games on the road.
  • The Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last four games on the road after failing to cover in their most recent road game.
  • The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The Seahawks are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games at home. (Avg winning margin: 6.0)
  • The Seahawks are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games after an ATS loss.
  • The Giants are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games vs the Seahawks. (Avg losing margin: 18.0)
Denver at Kansas City
  • The Chiefs are first in third-down conversion %. The Broncos are 30th.
  • Denver is tied for second in yards per play allowed over the last three games. The Chiefs are last in this span.
  • Denver is fourth in opponent red-zone TD %. KC is last.
  • The Broncos are averaging 7.3 more points per game on the road compared to at home.
  • The Chiefs are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games at home.
  • The Chiefs are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Broncos are 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs the Chiefs. (Avg losing margin: 13.7)
  • The Broncos are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a double-digit underdog.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Broncos’ last 15 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Broncos are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after an ATS loss.
  • The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The Chiefs are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six games at night.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Broncos’ last five games vs the Chiefs. (Avg combined score: 44.8)
Washington at Pittsburgh
  • Washington allows the seventh-highest QB pressure %. The Steelers rank first in sack %.
  • These teams rank third and fourth in yards per play allowed.
  • These teams are first and eighth in opponent red-zone TD scoring %.
  • These teams are ninth and 10th in opponent third-down conversion %.
  • Washington is 0-8 SU and ATS in its last eight games on Monday.
  • The Steelers are 11-0 SU in their last 11 games. (Avg winning margin: 11.73)
  • The Steelers are 15-0 SU in their last 15 games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The visiting team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine games in this matchup.
Buffalo at San Francisco
  • Over the last three weeks, the Bills are third in opponent third-down conversion %. The 49ers are 27th in third-down offense in this span.
  • The 49ers allow the sixth-highest QB pressure %. The Bills rank seventh in sack %.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Bills’ last five games on the road. (Avg combined score: 52.0)
  • The Bills are 1-8 SU in their last nine games on Monday.
  • The Bills are 1-6 SU in their last seven games at night.
  • The 49ers are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games at home.
  • The 49ers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games on Monday.
  • The 49ers are 5-1 SU in their last six games at home vs teams with winning records.
Cowboys at Ravens
  • Dallas has allowed the fifth-most sacks in the NFL. The Ravens have the highest blitz % in the NFL.
  • The Cowboys average 8.5 fewer points per game on the road than at home.
  • The Cowboys are 31st in yards allowed per rush attempt. The Ravens are fifth in yards per rush attempt.
  • The Cowboys are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.
  • The Cowboys are 1-7 SU in their last eight games on the road.
  • The Cowboys are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The Cowboys are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games at night.
  • The Ravens are 7-1 SU in their last eight games at home vs teams with losing records.

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