UFC 257 Betting Prediction: Matt Frevola vs. Ottoman Azaitar

Shortly after the main card begins for UFC 257, you will be able to see two lightweight battle it out. Matt Frevola and Ottoman Azaitar will look to climb a very competitive division ladder in this matchup.

Date:Sat, Jan 23, 9:00 PM

Venue:Etihad Arena

Watch on:PPV

The Fighters

Matt Frevola (8-1-1)

Frevola is coming off of two straight decision victories dating back to 2019. Indeed, he has not fought a professional bout since that time, with his last fight against Luis Pena back in October of 2019.

His fighting resume shows that he has one win by knockout, three by submission, and four by decision. He also has three first round finishes with a combined effort of knockouts and submissions.

“The Steamrolla” has a striking accuracy at 39 percent and a grappling accuracy at 40 percent. He lands 3.19 significant strikes a minute while absorbing 3.47. This ratio is slightly on the negative side, but not too concerning.

Frevola has a takedown defense at 75 percent and a significant strike defense at 60 percent. He also averages 3.30 takedowns and 1.40 submissions every 15 minutes.

Ottoman Azaitar (13-0-0)

Azaitar will yet again test his undefeated streak in this matchup. His most recent victory was a first round TKO against Khama Worthy back in September of 2020.

His fighting resume shows that he has 10 wins by knockout, two by submission, and one by decision. Out of his 13 wins, 10 of them have resulted in first round finishes.

“Bulldozer” only has two UFC fights on his resume, with both of them being first round knockout finishes. With that being said, his averages are slightly inflated in some areas.

He has a striking accuracy at 57 percent and nothing for a grappling accuracy yet. He lands 8.43 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 1.76. Again, a little inflated here.

Azaitar has successfully defended against takedowns so far and has a significant strike defense at 67 percent. He does not have any averages for takedowns or submissions.

Odds For This Event

The market has this matchup coming in fairly close. For the moneyline, BetDSI has the odds currently set at:

Frevola: +132

Azaitar: -159

*odds are subject to changes

Free Betting Pick

Both fighters have some interesting stats to compare. Azaitar has been lightning quick with his two finishes and Frevola has been able to close out long distance fights.

Frevola has not fought since 2019 due to various reasons. One has to wonder if he will come out and compete on the same level or better.

Azaitar has not even allowed his opponents a chance to do anything to him in the octagon, let alone land more than 10 significant strikes. These are some alarming numbers.

Overall, Azaitar looks more convincing here with his recent performances. Look for him to land another knockout and continue his undefeated streak.

Spooky Express Free Pick: Azaitar wins via TKO, at -159

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