Tracking 13-Point Teasers for the 2020 NFL Season (Part IV)

Last week’s thread can be viewed here.

AS A DISCLAIMER BEFORE WE BEGIN: This post is by no means suggesting that 13-point teasers present some kind of mathematical edge over Vegas nor is it suggesting that you prioritize these teasers over any other bets. However, there are some of you (like me), who like sprinkling a little on these every week for FUN and are interested to see how teasing every side and total plays out over the course of the season. I shouldn’t have to say this, but there were a couple sensitive types who were enraged that some of us enjoy playing teasers.

Anyways, I digress. Here is the table following Week 8’s results: link

Some interesting findings:

  • Coming off their best combined record last week (24-4) since Week 4, underdogs and favorites topped last week’s performance going 25-3

  • Teasing up underdogs went 13-1 for its best week since going 15-0 in Week 4

  • Teasing down favorites of -7.5 or above went 3-0 and is now 8-0 over the last three weeks

  • Teasing up underdogs of +7.5 or above went 3-0 and are now 17-1 since Week 3

  • Teasing overs and unders went 25-3 overall for its best week since going 29-3 in Week 3

  • Teasing down and up totals under 44 went 8-0 in Week 8

So how should you approach these going forward?

For me personally, I play a 5-teamer of these every week. I generally wait until later in the week and take a look at how the line is moving. I’ll find five sides getting the majority of the sharp money and good CLV and add those to my play. For instance, last week the Vikings (+7 to +5.5), Steelers (+5.5 to +3.5), Falcons (+3 to +1.5) and Raiders (+3 to +1) would have been great targets.

Again, these are only results from EIGHT weeks of play from 2020. For a more reliable sense of how these teasers work, we’d probably have to look back at the past 2-3 seasons as well before getting a better sense of these. So by no means, don’t go blowing little Susie’s college funds on these.

You can follow me on Twitter AT BetWithSeb1 or via the Action Network App AT BetWithSeb.

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