If You’re Not First, You’re … Gonna Want to Be Fifth
November is no time to be settling for the fifth seed, so please don’t misinterpret what I’m about to write.
There’s an even more subtle value to winning on Monday night, though. It’s an insurance policy, of sorts.
Let’s say L.A. earns the head-to-head over Tampa Bay in Week 11, but both teams finish runner-up in their respective divisions and end up tied in the wild card standings at year’s end at 11-5.
The Rams would be “The Five,” traveling to face “The Four” in the NFC playoffs.
Well, guess what?
It’s not even Thanksgiving and we all know the four-seed is going to be the East champion. So if you have to hit the road in January for a wild card game, going to Philadelphia (or New York) to face an opponent with a losing record is about the best case scenario. Just ask last year’s Seahawks.
Time Versus Tom
Who knows how much longer Tom Brady will play?
The Buccaneers are not on next year’s schedule (though they could end up coming to SoFi Stadium as a like-place finisher), so there’s a chance this could be the last time the Rams face the quarterback who has tormented this franchise.
Brady is 5-1 against the Rams, with his lone defeat coming in Week 10, 2001 – his first year as a starter. As we know, he’d avenge that loss later that season in Super Bowl XXXVI and never look back. He also set the NFL wins record against the Rams in 2016 and denied them another ring in Super Bowl LIII.
All of those meetings were with the New England Patriots, of course. Let’s see if Brady’s change of franchise changes the Rams’ fortunes.
Last week, we wrote about Russell Wilson and the Seahawks’ uncanny ability to get over the top of defenses versus the Rams’ ability to completely eliminate downfield explosives
Well this week, it’s the opposite.
Despite having an absolute arsenal at his disposal, Brady is 3-for-his-last-30 on passes beyond 20 yards (all three of those came against the Raiders in Week 7, per NFL Research).
Are they due to hit one? Certainly.
Can the Rams’ elite rush and cover combination keep Brady off track for another week? We’ll see. L.A. continues to surrender the fewest such receptions in the NFL and zero deep touchdowns on the season.
Brady is the only quarterback Aaron Donald has faced multiple times without registering a sack or coming away with a win (and more often than not, he gets both).
Tampa Bay is where Sean McVay got his start, as an offensive assistant to Jon Gruden in 2008. Now, the Bucs are the only NFC Team he’s yet to beat in his tenure with the Rams. He ticked off Washington – another of his former organizations – back in Week 5.
Just a couple potential check marks to monitor on Monday evening.
There remains a sizable discrepancy between the Rams’ offensive efficiency (fifth in NFL) and point production (18th). Only Philadelphia (22.6) has averaged fewer points than Los Angeles (24.0) among teams currently in the NFC playoff framework.
It’s been more than a month since the Rams reached 30 points in a game, and they’re averaging just 20 over their last four outings. Often times, they’ve lacked the killer instinct to put an opponent away, having mustered only seven points in the fourth quarter of their last three games, combined.
“I’m not going to apologize for having high standards,” the head coach said this week. “I expect us to play better. And I refuse to believe that we won’t as we move forward.”
Losing Left Tackles
The degree of difficulty goes up a notch this week, however. Not only are the Bucs the best defense Los Angeles will face all season – and potentially the best in the NFL – but now the Rams are without their cornerstone, Andrew Whitworth.
And there are two recent examples of what’s happened to teams who’ve lost their left tackles.
The Titans were 4-0 and averaging 30.5 points per game before Taylor Lewan tore his ACL. They’re 2-3 and putting up only 25.4 since.
As for the Ravens, they were cruising at 5-1 and scoring 29.8 points per contest when they inked Ronnie Stanley to a mega extension. In the first quarter of their next game, he broke an ankle and Baltimore hasn’t been the same since: 1-2 and plummeting to 21.7 scoring average.
That’s a fate McVay and the Rams hope to avoid, if not flip.