Pro Football MVP Trends: Young QBs, Offseason Additions Generating Strong Action

In 2018, second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes won NFL MVP. In 2019, second-year quarterback Lamar Jackson won NFL MVP after opening at 100/1 at William Hill. Those two are atop the odds board this time around at +450 and +700 respectively, but will the second-year quarterback MVP trend continue in 2020?

Many William Hill bettors think so.

Denver’s Drew Lock and Arizona’s Kyler Murray lead all signal-callers with 9% of the total number of tickets to be awarded 2020-21 NFL MVP.

Murray, who took home NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year last season, is tied with Deshaun Watson for the sixth-lowest MVP odds at 20/1.

“Let’s face it, Year 2 figures to be even better for Kyler,” said Nick Bogdanovich, Director of Trading for William Hill US. “He has DeAndre Hopkins now, a top-3 receiver. Another year in Kliff Kingsbury’s system. There’s a lot of positive trends there.

“I always liked Murray, he was the best player in high school and the best player in college. There’s no reason he can’t take another step here.”

Lock, meanwhile, sits at 100/1, the same price as fellow quarterbacks such as Jared Goff, Ryan Tannehill, Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa.

“With all of the additions Denver made on offense this offseason, so many people think Lock will have a breakout year,” Bogdanovich said. “The Broncos are primarily a running team, so he will be hard-pressed to have gaudy-enough numbers to win MVP, but you just never know. Especially in 2020.”

For total dollars wagered, it’s a couple of veterans atop the leaderboard—headlined by the biggest signing this offseason.

Tom Brady (18/1) ranks first with 15% of the total dollars wagered, with Dak Prescott (15/1) right behind at 14%. Each quarterback has drawn a $2,000 bet at their current odds, which are the largest NFL MVP futures wagers thus far at William Hill.

“Dak’s odds have come down from 25/1. There’s no question the Cowboys have three super receivers now,” Bogdanovich said. “Dallas has so much talent, they’re due to get over the hump. Now they’ve got new life with the coaching change. It’s all set up for Dak, he’s got a nice line and a lot of weapons.”

Along with Brady, the only other player to rank in the top 5 in both total number of tickets and total dollars wagered is his potential replacement in New England. Cam Newton has seen his odds shift from 100/1 to 30/1, and has generated 8% of the total number of tickets and 7% of the total dollars wagered.

One William Hill Nevada bettor put down $500 on Newton back when he was listed at 100/1 for a total potential payout of $50,500.

A couple of the aforementioned quarterbacks at long-shot odds have attracted noteworthy wagers as well. A William Hill New Jersey bettor placed $1,000 on both Goff and Tannehill at 100/1, with each having a total potential payout of $101,000.

Check out William Hill’s latest 2020-21 NFL MVP trends below.

Bet NFL with William Hill, America’s #1 sportsbook.

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