Penn State vs Purdue Odds and Picks

Brandon Newman scream reaction

Purdue’s Brandon Newman (5) reacts during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Indiana, Thursday, Jan. 14, 2021, in Bloomington Ind. Purdue won 81-69. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)
  • Penn State (3-4, 0-3 Big Ten) battles Purdue (9-5, 4-3 Big Ten) on Sunday, Jan. 17, at 1pm ET
  • After four consecutive road games, the Boilermakers are back at home, where they’re 5-0 this season
  • The odds for the game, as well as matchup analysis and a pick, can be found in the article below

The longest road stretch of Purdue’s season is over, and after some mixed results the Boilermakers return home to face Penn State on Sunday, Jan. 17 at 1pm ET.

Purdue went 2-2 on its recent road swing, and they enter Sunday’s game against unproven Penn State as favorites.

Purdue vs Penn State Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Purdue -220 -4.5 (-115) Over 138.5 (-114)
Penn State +180 +4.5 (-105) Under 138.5 (-106)

Odds as of Jan. 16th, 2020 at FanDuel.

How They’ve Fared Recently

After going winless in its first four true road games this year (i.e. neutral sites excluded), Purdue turned a corner recently to win a pair of away games. Sunday will mark just their second game in nine days, so they should be well rested.

The Boilermakers are coming off a solid win over Indiana, one of four KenPom top-50 opponents they’ve beaten this season. In the win over the Hoosiers, Purdue’s truest theme came to the forefront: living and dying by 3-point shots. Purdue sank 11-of-17 from deep (64.7%), while Indiana was an ice-cold 3-of-18 (16.7%).

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The Boilermakers shoot 37.4% from 3-point range as a team (46th in NCAA Division I), while 45.6% of their opponents’ shots are taken from beyond the arc (334th in D-I).

Interestingly enough, Penn State is also a strong 3-point shooting team (37.6%, 40th in D-I), which could make them a worthy opponent. But the Nittany Lions have had a series of postponements caused by COVID-19 positive tests, which is why they’ve only played seven games — and none since Dec. 30.

Penn State’s 18-day layoff follows a six-day layoff, which followed a nine-day layoff. Their last win came on Dec. 8 against Virginia Tech (31st in KenPom), which probably feels like ages ago for the players.

Arguably the best performance this year for the Nittany Lions came on Dec. 13 in a 62-58 loss to unbeaten Michigan. Penn State held a lead inside the final three minutes but missed its final five shots.

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ATS Analysis

The Boilermakers are 5-7-2 against the spread, but are riding a mini hot streak of 2-0-1 in their past three games. For what it’s worth, Purdue is 1-3-1 ATS at home — but they’ve played exactly one home game in the past month.

The Nittany Lions are 4-3 ATS, with three wins in their past four. All three of those recent wins have come on the road, but again it bears repeating that only one of those wins has come in the past month. It’s a weird year, folks.

No over/under trends are worth digging into here, as these teams have seen the over hit in 11 of 21 combined games.

Head-to-Head Matchup

These teams played three times in the previous two seasons: Purdue has won two of three straight up, while both teams are 1-1-1 against the spread.

As is the case with their ATS records this season, there isn’t a terribly compelling trend here to pick at. Instead, it makes more sense to think about this matchup with the situational context we have about these teams.

Purdue has a great volume of quality wins and is unbeaten at home. Penn State hasn’t played yet in 2021 and is on a three-game losing streak.

Pick: Purdue -4.5 (-115)

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