# NFL: Let’s talk about teasers (Week 17)

6-point Teasers

Thanks for following along with these posts for the entire season!

Continuing the great work of u/blackjack_counter

previous week 16 post

Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:

• Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3

• Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.

It is not recommended to tease game totals

The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.

In the week 1 post, u/blackjack_counter did a mathematical dive into whether we should be playing games at exactly +3, whether home teams are more reliable than road teams, and whether the total of the game matters.

Sweetheart Teasers

10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers. Over the past three years, underdogs of +1½, +2, +2½ were 69-10 (87.3%). It’s not a very large sample size, but it might be worth keeping an eye on. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2019, I’ve decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:

• For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;

• Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;

• Do not take sweetheart teasers on favorites.

Previous Results

There were 7 teams that fit our 6pt teaser criteria and they went 4-3. Hopefully this week allows us to end the regular season on a high note. There were 2 teams that fit the 10pt teaser criteria and they went 2-0, continuing the hot run for the season.

The plays last week were:

Off-the-board spread 6 pt 10 pt
Las Vegas +3 Win
Houston -7.5 Loss
Denver +2 Win Win
LA Rams +1.5 Loss Win
Dallas +3 Win
Tennessee +3 Loss
Buffalo -7.5 Win

Based on the closing line at Bovada to determine which games qualify as Wong bets. Since u/blackjack_counter used Bovada’s closing lines, I will continue to use it. You can verify these lines at sbrodds.com.

Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. Including last week, the results since 2017 are listed below.

Teaser Year Spread Record Win %
6 pt 2017 +1½ thru +3 61-23 72.6%
6 pt 2018 +1½ thru +3 63-19 76.8%
6 pt 2019 +1½ thru +3 52-16 76.5%
6 pt 2020 +1½ thru +3 54-15 78.3%
6 pt 2017 -7½ thru -9 27-10 73.0%
6 pt 2018 -7½ thru -9 16-9 64.0%
6 pt 2019 -7½ thru -9 17-7 70.8%
6 pt 2020 -7½ thru -9 25-6 80.6%
10 pt 2017 +1½ thru +2½ 22-1 95.7%
10 pt 2018 +1½ thru +2½ 24-5 82.8%
10 pt 2019 +1½ thru +2½ 23-4 85.2%
10 pt 2020 +1½ thru +2½ 16-0 100.0%

We can see that the underdog teasers have fallen from their previous hot streak throughout most of the season. It’s slightly above previous season’s win %, but we’ll have to see how this final week turns out. The favorite’s teasers are still doing well at 80.6%. The 10pt sweetheart teasers are still undefeated. At the end of the season, I will have to dig into that a bit more and see what happened.

This season has been a decent success for teaser bets for me personally, I hope you are all having success as well

This Week

For the purposes of tracking the results and staying consistent, I will continue to use Bovada’s closing line.

As of Thursday afternoon, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week are:

NY Giants +2

Cleveland -9

NY Jets +3

Miami +3

Tennessee -7.5

Denver +2.5

LA Rams +3

If you wanted to use Wong’s additional criteria of games with a total of 49 points or less, there are 6 games ( NY Giants, Cleveland, NY Jets, Miami, LA Rams, Philadelphia) that match the criteria.

Looking through sportsdatabase, since 2017:

NY Giants as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 4-5 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49

Cleveland as a favorite between -7.5 to -9 points have been 2-0 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49

NY Jets as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 9-0 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49

Miami as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 5-2 as a 6pt teaser

Tennessee as a favorite between -7.5 to -9 points have been 5-0 as a 6pt teaser

Denver as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 10-0 as a 6pt teaser

LA Rams as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 2-2 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49

Philadelphia as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 5-1 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49

It is unclear on where the final lines on sportsdatabase come from. If you did a similar query for +1.5 to +3 point underdogs 6pt teasers, you would see sportsdatabase have them at 55-12, where Bovada has it at 54-15 for this season. That is a better win rate than Bovada’s final lines. I still think its useful to see historical stats on probably line averages across multiple sportsbooks. You could probably dig deeper for teams coming off wins or losses as well.

Regarding game totals < 49

The games with a total of 49 or less got brought up originally by u/blackjack_counter. In his week 1 post, he put:

Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?

Bet Record
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 176-58 75.2%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 142-45 75.9%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 44-14 75.9%
Bet Record
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 59-26 69.4%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 48-19 71.6%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 16-6 72.7%

I looked up the historical stats using sportsdatabase (which have final lines using an unknown source, u/blackjack_counter stats were from Bovada lines).

Since 2017, Underdogs +1.5 to +3 are 230-67-2 (77.4%)

Since 2017, Underdogs +1.5 to +3 and game total < 49 are 181-52-2 (77.7%)

Since 2017, Favorites -9 to -7.5 are 80-18-4 (81.6%)

Since 2017, Favorites -9 to -7.5 and game total < 49 are 65-16-3 (80.2%)

If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong’s original criteria is home favorites):

Since 2017, Home Favorites -9 to -7.5 are 58-16-3 (78.4%)

Since 2017, Home Favorites -9 to -7.5 and game total < 49 are 47-15-2 (75.8%)

Round Robin of all matching games

There has been lots of questions and comments on how to bet these Wong teasers. I think there was some thought that doing a Round Robin of 2 or 3 team teasers of the matching games would be ideal. I am not convinced that makes sense.

For example, there are 6 matching in a certain week and only 1 team lost their tease. If you had done a round robin of 2 team teasers from those 6 matching games, you would have 15 possible teaser bets. In this scenario, if you had 5 out of 6 teams that won their tease, then you would be profitable. If only 4 out of 6 had won their tease, then you would have not broken even.

I think the recommendation is to pick and choose teams that match our criteria (and any other information you use to make an informed bet) and put those into a 2 or 3 team teaser bet.

Good Luck this week and Happy New Years! Hopefully these teasers do better this week.