McGregor vs Poirier 2: Odds Analysis & Prediction

Conor McGregor’s 2020 season was abruptly halted shortly after his quick knockout win over Donald Cerrone on January 18 due to the coronavirus pandemic. The Irishman hasn’t fought since, though it looks like his season has merely been postponed a year as a rematch with Dustin Poirier is on the horizon for early 2021.

In the above tweet, “Notorious” said he wanted a fight with Dustin Poirier to take place at Cowboy Stadium (AT&T Stadium) in Dallas, a location that has been hosting reduced crowds for Dallas Cowboys games thus far. However, this fight is going to headline UFC 257 in a return to Yas Island, aka Fight Island, in Abu Dhabi.

He also mentioned “Then Manny” at the end, which points to the anticipated boxing match with Manny Pacquiao. But for now, we keep our attention on the Octagon, and below are the McGregor vs Poirier 2 odds.

These two first met in 2014 with McGregor scoring a first-round knockout win. Looking at the McGregor vs Poirier 2 odds, it is a little surprising to see the previous winner, McGregor, as just a -235 favorite, with Poirier coming back at +200.

This means you would have to wager $235 to profit $100 on a McGregor win, while a $100 bet on Poirier would profit you $200. The McGregor -235 line has implied odds of 70.15 percent to win and Poirier’s implied odds would be 33.33 percent. You can figure out all of your potential winnings with our sports betting calculator.

McGregor vs Poirier 2 Odds

Fighter Current Odds Opening Odds
Conor McGregor -235 -180
Dustin Poirier +200 +155

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New to betting on the fights and the McGregor vs Poirier 2 odds have you interested? Check out our UFC betting guide to help you get in the action. Also, keep an eye on our UFC odds page for the latest up-to-date Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier 2 odds.

McGregor vs Poirier 2 Odds Analysis

Looking back at Conor McGregor’s career odds, outside of two occasions as an underdog in the cage and once in the boxing ring against Floyd Mayweather Jr., the -235 line will be his tightest since he fought Nate Diaz the second time (-155) though longer than his -225 line for the first fight vs Poirier.

This only means there is tremendous value on “Notorious” even though he has competed only once in the last two years. Having already scored a knockout win over Poirier should have McGregor brimming with confidence heading into the bout. Additionally, if in fact Pacquaio is on tap next, it only makes sense that he takes on a southpaw in Poirier as a “tune-up” fight.

Now, if you’re not a fan of the Irishman and you see the McGregor vs Poirier 2 odds, you may think you just hit the lottery with the red-hot “Diamond” as an underdog. Since losing to McGregor in 2014, Poirier has gone 10-2 with one no contest, winning the interim lightweight belt vs Max Holloway and beating current interim lightweight champion Justin Gaethje and former champions Anthony Pettis and Eddie Alvarez.

But the first time these two met, McGregor had his mind games working to full effect and Poirier has even admitted his opponent got under his skin.

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At the three-minute mark in the above video, you can see a tense interaction between the two in the hotel lobby and you can almost see that Poirier feels uncomfortable as McGregor stares him down.

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McGregor vs Poirier 2 Preview & Prediction

To expand upon that last part, perhaps the No. 1 factor and one that is hard to handicap so far out from the fight is how Poirier handles his emotions this time around. To me, this is one of the areas in which he has improved throughout his career, hardly looking fazed in his title fight vs Khabib Nurmagomedov last year. Conversely, you could see the Diamond’s agitation when he swiped at McGregor’s hand as they came face to face during the ref’s instructions for their first fight.

Although there wasn’t much video to study from that first go-around, with McGregor scoring the knockout 1:46 into the fight, Poirier was doing a good job chopping at Notorious’ lead leg, which was almost always answered with McGregor’s patented powerful left hand. Eventually, Conor landed that left behind Dustin’s ear, dropping him and ending the fight.

That previous fight was at featherweight and this one will be contested at lightweight, which presents pros and cons for each fighter – more power at the heavier weight helps McGregor, while not cutting weight typically leads to better conditioning, which gives an edge to Poirier.

The fighting styles are interesting as well. McGregor tends to be a fast starter (16 wins in the first round), while Poirier tends to be a slow starter and picks up as the fight progresses.

I do expect this fight to last longer than the first one, especially if McGregor is using Poirier as a tune-up with a southpaw before Pacquiao. Perhaps he will want to show off his conditioning for five rounds? Additionally, champion Nurmagomedov has said the next person to beat Poirier would be the No. 1 contender, setting the stage for a potential McGregor/Nurmagomedov rematch.

That said, McGregor could walk in and walk right through him – you really never know in his fights – but I think this is going to be a five-round war much like the second Nate Diaz fight.

Prediction: Conor McGregor (-235) via decision

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