KBO/NPB Daily Discussion – 11/21/20 (Saturday)

Record: 38-41-3 (Streak W) Down 3.85u over 82 KBO picks

Last: NC at Doosan +108 (Doosan won 7-6.)

Pick: NC -122 at Doosan (Odds on Fanduel), KBO Baseball, Midnight ET

I love it when a plan comes together. I recommended both Doosan on the moneyline and over 9 runs. And both came through when the Bears won 7-6 in an entertaining back-and-forth affair. There’s just not a lot of daylight between these teams. Through 3 games, the aggregate score is 15-15. They are averaging 10 total runs per game after putting up 13 in the last one.

NC is in a must-win situation considering a loss here means they’ll have to beat both Flexen and Alcantara in the final 3 games to win the title. Doosan would love to take a 3-1 series lead with this game because that would mean they could lose to both Rucinski and Koo but still win the title.

NC’s must-win starter is Song Myung-gi. He posted a 9-3 record with a 3.70 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season in 36 games (12 starts). He moved into the rotation in late August and has won his last 6 starts where he allowed 9 ER on 22 H in 32 IP. He’s been really good recently, but he’s not likely to pitch more than 5 innings. He started once against Doosan back in August and gave up 2 ER on 8 H in 5 IP. He may have a slight issue with the longball as he’s allowed 7 HR in his last 7 starts.

Doosan is banking on Kim Min-gyu to deliver the big win. He only has 4 starts this season among his 29 appearances and posted a 1-2 record with a 4.89 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. His last start was against Kiwoom in mid-October where he allowed 1 ER on 6 H in 5.1 IP. He faced NC in relief three times early in the season throwing 2.1 perfect innings.

Both these teams used their bullpens for 6 innings on Friday after each using their bullpen for 6 total innings over the first two games. I suspect we’ll see a lot of the bullpen on Saturday, too. With Doosan already dipping into their bullpen for the Game 4 starter, that would seem to give NC an advantage. And if things get ugly early, I could really see the Bears manager leaving their starter out there to eat up some innings. The Dinos will manage a lot more aggressively.

NC is the slight favorite in this game, hovering around -125. The over/under is set at a series-high 10.5 runs with under as a very small favorite, between -115 and -120. Any rust that was on the NC bats has officially fallen off. They had a hit in 7 of the 9 innings on Friday. I suspect more of the same on Saturday and will be backing the favorite as my top pick (I’ll also throw a half unit on NC -1.5 at +124). I think this game is likely to go over 10.5 runs as well. I’d love to see the series come down to a best of 3 with 4 of the best pitchers in the league lined up to face each other in games 5 and 6.

Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck!

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