Heisman Odds After Week 16: DeVonta Smith Favored Over Mac Jones; Lawrence at +1600

DeVonta Smith Alabama

Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith (6) makes a catch for a touchdown against Florida during the first half of the Southeastern Conference championship NCAA college football game, Saturday, Dec. 19, 2020, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
  • Alabama WR DeVonta Smith has overtaken teammate Mac Jones as the favorite in the Heisman trophy odds
  • Trevor Lawrence is sitting at +1600 after winning the ACC Championship vs Notre Dame
  • See the updated Heisman Trophy odds after Week 16 along with betting analysis below

Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith (-140) has overtaken teammate Mac Jones (+150) in the Heisman Trophy odds following the SEC Championship game. Voters have until Monday, December 21st to submit their ballots. The trophy will be presented virtually on January 5th, 2021.

A ridiculously high-scoring conference championship game between Florida and Alabama has led oddsmakers to narrow down the betting field to five total players. Smith, Jones, Najee Harris and Kyle Trask are all on the board after turning in Heisman-worthy efforts in Week 16.

Clemson coach Dabo Swinney is pushing for Trevor Lawrence to win the prestigious trophy after beating Notre Dame, but the Tigers’ star pivot remains a longshot.

2020 Heisman Trophy Odds

Player Odds
DeVonta Smith (WR, Alabama) -140
Mac Jones (QB, Alabama) +150
Kyle Trask (QB, Florida) +1600
Trevor Lawrence (QB, Clemson) +1600
Najee Harris (RB, Alabama) +2000

Odds as of Dec. 20 at FanDuel .

Smith’s Record-Setting Evening

Alabama senior wide receiver DeVonta Smith has overtaken Mac Jones in the Heisman odds after another incredible performance in Week 16 against Florida. Smith is now Alabama’s all-time leader in receiving yards after making 15 catches for 184 yards and two TD in the SEC title game.

Smith finishes the regular season with 98 receptions for 1,511 yards and 18 total touchdowns in 12 games. One of his most compelling cases for the Heisman is the fact he’s caught over half of Jones’ touchdown passes this season (53.1%). The Tide receiver continued to prove his versatility this weekend with a clutch fumble recovery against the Gators.

You have to go back to 1991 for the last time a wide receiver won the Heisman. Hence why oddsmakers aren’t fully sold on Smith being a lock. The good news is that Smith’s stats are even better than the stats of the last two WR Heisman winners. If Smith doesn’t win this award, it’s hard to see a receiver ever taking home the trophy again.

2021 CFP National Championship Odds Tracker

Jones Carves Up Gators

Alabama quarterback Mac Jones threw for 418 yards and five touchdowns in the SEC Championship, yet his Heisman odds have dropped from -200 to +150. This latest movement in the odds just tells you how talented this Alabama offense truly is. You can make a compelling case for each Alabama player listed in the updated odds.

Jones never had that signature “Heisman moment”, but he’s been remarkably consistent all year. The second-year QB finishes the regular season with 3,739 passing yards and 32 touchdowns with just four interceptions. He also has the highest QBR of all-time (95.6).

What Jones has working for him is that nine of the last 10 Heisman winners have been quarterbacks. No Crimson Tide QB has won the trophy, however, so this would be unchartered waters. You have to expect that there will be voters who discount Jones due to his incredible receiver group and offensive line.

Swinney Campaigns For Lawrence

Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney made a powerful statement about Trevor Lawrence and the Heisman Trophy following Clemson’s huge win over Notre Dame in the ACC Championship. “It would be a crying shame if the Heisman didn’t attach their name to Trevor Lawrence,” Swinney said after the victory.

“If you watch college football and you don’t know that this is the best player in the country, I don’t know what you are looking at,” the Clemson coach added.

Lawrence was fantastic in Clemson’s rematch with Notre Dame, throwing for 322 yards and two touchdowns while adding 90 yards and another TD on the ground. The Tigers’ pivot finishes the regular season with 2,753 passing yards and 22 touchdowns to go with only four interceptions.

Swinney may be right in claiming that Lawrence is the best player in the country, but Lawrence was also one of the best players last season and didn’t even get an invite to New York. The Heisman is about fancy stats in this day-and-age, and Lawrence’s numbers aren’t Heisman-worthy. The missed games due to COVID really set him back, and one final great showing won’t be enough to makeup for lost time.

Gators Defense Costs Trask

Florida’s Kyle Trask is sitting as a +1600 longshot to win the 2020 Heisman despite turning in a heroic effort against Alabama in the SEC Title game. The Gators’ pivot threw for 408 yards and three touchdowns in a close 52-46 defeat. Florida entered the game as 17.5-point underdogs, yet Trask had his team in the game until the very end.

Trask finishes the regular season with an astounding 4,125 passing yards and 43 TD with just 5 picks in 11 games. Florida’s defense has been an issue this season, and it’s ultimately what’s going to cost Trask the trophy. Given what we saw from the pivot against Alabama, Trask likely would’ve won this thing if Florida hadn’t blown their CFP chances by losing to an undermanned LSU team in Week 15.

Trask could be viewed as an intriguing value play at +1600, but there’s reason to tread lightly. Florida now has three losses this season, and the only three-loss Heisman winner in the last 20 years was Louisville’s Lamar Jackson. You also have to consider that Trask committed three turnovers in the first half against LSU, and that’s going to be fresh in the minds of voters.

Who’s The Best Bet?

Dabo Swinney may tell you otherwise, but the Heisman race is really down to just Mac Jones and DeVonta Smith after Week 16. Smith has had “Heisman moments” against LSU and Arkansas, but Jones has been solid all season and had a couple big games early in the season before Smith caught fire.

When making your bet, you have to remember you’re betting on who you think will get the most votes; not necessarily the player you think is most deserving. If the Heisman truly went to the “most outstanding player”, Smith would have a bigger lead over Jones.

Alabama’s perfect regular season means you can’t go wrong betting Smith or Jones. 2020 would be the perfect year for a receiver to win the trophy, and not many people would be upset if Smith took it home. But this has also become a QB award and it wouldn’t surprise me if voters opted to reward Jones for his steady play throughout the year.

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