Fresno State vs Nevada Odds and Picks

Orlando Robinson Fresno State Bulldogs

San Diego State forward Matt Mitchell (11) passes the ball while defended by Fresno State forward Orlando Robinson (10) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2020, in San Diego. San Diego won 61-52. (AP Photo/Orlando Ramirez)
  • Nevada is a 7.5-point favorite over Fresno State on Friday (Jan. 15th, 11 pm EST)
  • The Wolfpack have dropped back-to-back games, while the Bulldogs have won three straight
  • See below for analysis, odds and a betting prediction

The late night sweat will be working overtime on Friday, as Fresno State travels to Nevada for an 11 pm EST tip. The Wolfpack (8-5, 3-3 MCW) are fresh off being swept in a pair of road games versus San Diego State, while the Bulldogs (5-3, 3-3 MWC) enter play riding a three-game winning streak.

Fresno State vs Nevada Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Fresno State Bulldogs +7.5 (-110) +225 Over 136.5 (-110)
Nevada Wolfpack -7.5 (-110) -275 Under 136.5 (-110)

Odds taken Jan. 14th at FanDuel.

Despite the discrepancy in recent results, Nevada opened up as a sizeable 7.5-point favorite. The Wolfpack have actually covered in four straight and six of their last seven contests, and have faced a much tougher schedule to date than Fresno State.

2021 NCAA Men’s Tournament Championship Odds Tracker

Close but no Cigar

Nevada’s two losses versus the Aztecs, a top-40 team in the Nation, were by a combined 7 points. In their first meeting, they fell 65-60, and last time out the game was tied with just seconds remaining.

The heartbreaking, buzzer beater loss dropped the Wolfpack to .500 in conference play, and marked the fourth time in five outings they failed to reach 70 points. They rank 199th in college basketball in field goal percentage, and 8th out of 11 programs in the Mountain West in offensive rating.

The offense is a two-man show, as only Grant Sherfield and Desmond Cambridge average in double figures, and no one else even attempts more than 6.8 shots per game.

They rely on defense to keep games close, a strategy that has worked well for most of the season. Just once in their past six game has a team exceeded 69 points against them, and for the season, they’re holding enemy shooters to 67 points and 40.4% from the field per game.

Do the Bulldogs Have Enough Bite?

Fresno State meanwhile, is fresh off its three biggest offensive outputs of the season. They’ve averaged 80 points per game during their winning streak, outscoring the competition by 50 total points.

Two of those contests were versus lightweight San Jose State, but you can only beat who’s on your schedule. The Bulldogs are led offensively by 7-footer Orlando Robinson, who averages 18.1 points and 10.6 rebounds per game. Robinson’s presence down low is a big reason for Fresno State’s excellent rebounding, as they rank 16th in offensive rebounding, and 20th in the their own end.

They’re not a prolific scoring team by any means, but they do grade out better than the Wolfpack in offensive rating, effective field goal percentage, total rebounding and points per game.

Defensively, they rank a hair behind Nevada in both rating and points per game, and that’s usually the end of the court where games are won and lost for them. They’re 5-0 when holding opponents below 65 points, and 0-3 when teams score north of 65 points against them.

Back the ‘Dogs

The Wolfpack have owned this matchup over the last three seasons, registering six straight wins over its conference rival. However, 7.5-points is a big number to cover, and Nevada isn’t a team that’s going to shoot you out of the gym.

The Wolfpack have covered the number just once this season when favored by more than 6-points, while the Bulldogs have covered in three straight. This game profiles as a low-scoring, tight affair and I like the underdogs to cover and possibly even win outright.

Pick: Fresno State +7.5 (-110)

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