Bundesliga Betting: Flick’s flops to fight back

Angry Bayern to come out swinging

Bayern Munich v Freiburg
Sunday 17 January, 14:30
Live on BT Sport and Betfair Live Video

There’s an argument to say that this has been Bayern Munich’s toughest week since coach Hansi Flick took charge. An extraordinary spell of success that saw the Bavarian giants hoover up five trophies has now seen Flick’s team suffer the jolt of its first real bump in the road. Firstly, Bayern blew a 2-0 lead in a 3-2 defeat at Borussia Mönchengladbach, and then they suffered the indignity of crashing out of the DFB Cup at second-tier Holstein Kiel. In wintry conditions in the far north of Germany, Bayern leaked a last-gasp equaliser, and lost on penalties. It was their first defeat to non-Bundesliga opposition for 16 years.

There are ongoing concerns. Bayern have fallen behind in their last nine Bundesliga matches, they have gone ten league games without a clean sheet (Manuel Neuer’s worst ever run in the German top flight), and no-one in the top half of the table has a worse defensive record. Flick criticised the defensive errors his team made in Kiel, but has refuted suggestions that his players lack sufficient hunger and motivation. Thomas Müller’s spiky post-match interview with broadcaster ARD was a good indicator of the frustration in the squad, and the desire to put things right.

Many people will look at this game against in-form Freiburg and feel there’s a big chance of an upset. The Black Forest side have won five games in a row in the league, scoring 16 goals in the process. However, they leak plenty of goals, and their record against Bayern is poor.

Christian Streich’s side suffered a pair of 3-1 defeats against the champions last term, and they have lost nine of the last 11 meetings in the league. This season they have lost 4-0 to Borussia Dortmund, 4-2 to Bayer Leverkusen and 3-0 to RB Leipzig.

I’ll use the Sportsbook’s Same Game Multi to back a Bayern win, Over 3.5 Goals and Robert Lewandowski to score at 2.22. Lewandowski has already scored 20 league goals, and is halfway to the legendary Gerd Müller’s single-season record of 40.

Werder to fail at home again

Werder Bremen v Augsburg
Saturday 16 January, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

Werder are one of the most perplexing teams in the league. They managed to draw at Bayern and at Bayer Leverkusen, but at home they really struggle to get results. The northerners have won just two of their last 22 Bundesliga home games, and the last of those victories was in the first week of October. In their last 30 league matches at home, they’ve managed a paltry two clean sheets. In theory, coach Florian Kohfeldt should be under pressure, but the lack of funds means that expectations have been downgraded.

Augsburg are the 3.613/5 outsiders here, and I can’t really fathom why. They have won their last two away games, and they’ve only lost two of their last nine on the road. They have only failed to score in one of those nine matches. They are two places and four points better off than Werder in the standings.

I’ll back Augsburg/Draw Double Chance and Over 1.5 Goals here at 2.21 on the Same Game Multi. 13 of Werder’s 15 league games have featured at least two goals.

Humiliated Hoffe to find succour

Hoffenheim v Arminia Bielefeld
Saturday 16 January, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

Losing to a team that hadn’t won in the Bundesliga for 30 matches was never going to be a good look for Hoffenheim, but their embarrassing 4-0 reverse at the Veltins Arena didn’t actually tell the whole story. Hoffenheim created plenty of early chances (they had an xG of 1.93 according to Infogol), but found Royal Blues’ keeper Ralf Fahrmann is stunning form. I genuinely believe that if Hoffenheim had scored first, Schalke would have crumbled.

However, that didn’t happen, and now coach Sebastian Hoeness is under serious pressure. He’s been given a vote of confidence by sporting director Alexander Rosen, but defeat to lowly Arminia Bielefeld this weekend would push the former Bayern reserve boss close to the brink. It doesn’t help that ten senior pros are currently injured, although Sebastian Rudy is on track to return to the midfield.

The saving grace could be that Arminia’s away form is hugely disappointing. Uwe Neuhaus’ side have lost five of their last six road matches, and haven’t scored multiple goals in any of them. You can never question their work ethic or intensity, and they bullied Hertha Berlin on Sunday in a 1-0 win, but they lack technical quality and don’t carry much of a goal threat.

Even a depleted Hoffenheim have more quality than the visitors, and I’ll back the hosts to pick up a much-needed win, boosting their price by backing them -0.5 & -1.0 on the Asian Handicap. Their last four home wins have all been by two goals or more.

Union to strike

Union Berlin v Bayer Leverkusen
Friday 15 January, 19:30
Live on BT Sport and Betfair Live Video

Every time it looks as though Union Berlin will be slowed down this season, they find a way to surprise their critics. Despite the loss of talismanic forward Max Kruse, coach Urs Fischer has kept up the attacking momentum by pairing in-form Nigerian striker Taiwo Awoniyi with Dutch speedster Sheraldo Becker. The latter is usually a wide player, but he has taken to his new central role with relish, and has scored stunning goals in his last two games.

Union’s front-foot approach has led to eight of their last ten games featuring at least three goals, and I think there’s every chance of that tally improving yet further against a Bayer Leverkusen side that scored four times in the DFB Cup in midweek against Eintracht Frankfurt. Nine of Bayer’s last 11 Bundesliga matches have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land, including their last five away games, and these are both teams to have speed in attack and like to play on the front foot.

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