- The Kansas City Chiefs are 10-point home favorites over the Cleveland Browns on Sunday in an AFC divisional playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium
- Browns running back Nick Chubb had 145 yards from scrimmage in last week’s win over the Pittsburgh Steelers
- A look at various Browns-Chiefs players props along with best bets can be found below
The Kansas City Chiefs take their next step toward trying to win back-to-back Super Bowl titles when they host the Cleveland Browns in an AFC divisional round game at 3:05 p.m. ET Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium.
This will be the Chiefs’ first playoff game after going an NFL-best 14-2 in the regular season and drawing a first-round bye. They won their first Super Bowl in 50 years last season.
The Browns are 12-5 and coming off a 48-37 road upset of the Pittsburgh Steelers in the wild card round last weekend as a five-point underdog,
Browns vs Chiefs Player Props
|Passer||Completions||Passing Yards||Passing TDs|
|Baker Mayfield (CLE)||22.5 (O -110 | U -110)||262.5 (O -115 | U -115)||1.5 (O -125 | U -105)|
|Patrick Mahomes (KC)||27.5 (O +100 | U -130)||316.5 (O -115) | U -115)||2.5 (O -105 | U -125)|
|Rusher||Rushing Attempts||Rushing Yards||Rushing + Receiving Yards|
|Nick Chubb (CLE)||15.5 (O -120 | U -110)||69.5 (O -110 | U -120)||86.5 (O -115 | U -115)|
|Kareem Hunt (CLE)||7.5 (O -125 | U -105)||31.5 (O -115) | U -115)||51.5 (O -115 | U -115)|
|Baker Mayfield (CLE)||N/A||13.5 (O -115) | U -115)||N/A|
|Patrick Mahomes (KC)||N/A||18.5 (O -120) | U -110)||N/A|
|Receiver||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Longest Reception|
|Jarvis Landry (CLE)||4.5 (O -175 | U +145)||57.5 (O -115 | U -115)||21.5 (O -105 | U -125)|
|Rashard Higgins (CLE)||3.5 (O +100 | U -130)||46.5 (O -115 | U -115)||20.5 (O -120 | U -110)|
|Austin Hooper (CLE)||3.5 (O -150 | U +120)||45.5 (O -115 | U -115)||19.5 (O -105 | U -125)|
|Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE)||1.5 (O -160 | U +130)||22.5 (O -115 | U -115)||15.5 (O -120 | U -110)|
|Travis Kelce (KC)||7.5 (O -115 | U -115)||88.5 (O -115 | U -115)||24.5 (O -120 | U -110)|
|Tyreek Hill (KC)||6.5 (O -110 | U -120)||83.5 (O -115 | U -115)||26.5 (O -110 | U -120)|
|Demarcus Robinson (KC)||3.5 (O +130 | U -160)||39.5 (O -115 | U -115)||19.5 (O -110 | U -120)|
|Mecole Hardman (KC)||2.5 (O -170 | U +140)||34.5 (O -110 | U -120)||17.5 (O -120 | U -110)|
Odds taken Jan. 16 from William Hill
Light Workload, Heavy Production
This game figures to be high scoring as the over/under is 57 points while the Chiefs are favored by 10.
Both teams also have middling defenses with the Chiefs ranking 16th in total yards allowed in the regular season and the Browns standing 17th.
Browns running back Nick Chubb had 1,067 rushing yards in the regular season despite missing four games with a knee injury. In last week’s win, Chubb carried 18 times for 76 yards and was a bigger factor than normal in the passing game with four receptions for 69 yards, including a 40-yard touchdown on a screen pass.
Nick Chubb. GONE ♨️
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/xEPBDhyulj
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 11, 2021
Last week’s 145 yards came on the heels of Chubb rushing for 108 yards, also in a win over the Steelers, in the regular-season finale. While the Chiefs are a better team, it is instructive that the Steelers were third in total defense.
It seems likely the Browns will try to control the game on the ground and keep the ball away from Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Thus, Chubb should get plenty of touches.
Chubb has proven he does not need to be a workhorse to be productive. He is the first player since the Miami Dolphins’ Mercury Morris in 1972 to rush for at least 1,000 yards and 12 TDs on 190 or fewer carries.
- Pick: Nick Chubb over 86.5 combined rushing and receiving yards (-115, 1 unit)
It’s Mahomes Time
Mahomes finished second in the NFL in passing yards in the regular season with 4,740 and likely would have been first if he had not been rested in the finale against the Los Angeles Chargers. His 38 touchdown passes were fourth.
As good as Mahomes is during the regular season, he really shines in the playoffs. And he is fired up.
Take it up to ? #RunItBack @Headshoulders pic.twitter.com/b2tx8DemFr
— Patrick Mahomes II (@PatrickMahomes) January 12, 2021
Mahomes has thrown 13 touchdown passes and no interceptions in his four career playoff games at Arrowhead. He also has at least two scoring passes in each of his last four postseason games.
Mahomes has only faced the Browns once in his young career, throwing for 375 yards and three touchdowns in 2018. While the Browns are a better team now, they did give up 501 passing yards to the Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger last week.
The Browns get top cornerback Denzel Ward back after he sat out last week with COVID-19 concerns. However, Mahomes should still have his way.
- Pick: Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 touchdown passes (-105, 1 unit)
Browns vs Chiefs Scoring Props
|Player||Odds to Score 1st TD||Odds to Score Any TD|
|Travis Kelce (KC)||+600||-145|
|Tyreek Hill (KC)||+600||-155|
|Nick Chubb (CLE)||+800||-120|
|Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC)||+800||+100|
|Darrel Williams (KC)||+1200||+160|
|Le’Veon Bell (KC)||+1200||+160|
|Kareem Hunt (CLE)||+1300||+165|
|Demarcus Robinson (KC)||+1400||+190|
|Jarvis Landry (CLE)||+1500||+190|
|Mecole Hardman (KC)||+1600||+230|
Odds taken Jan. 16 from FanDuel
Who Will Hit Paydirt?
Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce are co-favorites to score the first touchdown, which is logical since they are Mahomes’ go-to receivers. Figure on one of the two scoring first and we will go with Kelce, who had 105 receptions in the regular season.
(2017) @tkelce caught the ball and then dived into the end zone for this amazing touchdown ?#traviskelce #travis #kelce #nfl #kansascitychiefs #kansascity #chiefs #chiefsnation #americanfootball #gridiron #football #touchdown pic.twitter.com/yLETbsvQ8Y
— In The Showcase (@intheshowcase) October 18, 2020
Let’s take a shot with Browns wide receiver Jarvis Landry as an anytime touchdown scorer. He has had a TD in each of Cleveland’s last five road games.
- Picks: Travis Kelce to score first TD (+600, 0.5 unit), Jarvis Landry to score anytime touchdown (+190, 0.5 unit)