Bills On Parade: Buffalo huge Wild Card favorites in matchup with Colts

Featured in this article:

  • The Bills are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of Indy’s last 12 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Buffalo’s last 16 games.

The Colts capped off an 11-5 campaign with a 28-14 ho-hum victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. While Philip Rivers is heading to the playoffs in what may be his final season, bettors should know that despite the postseason-friendly record straight-up, Indy was just 8-8 against the spread this season.

AFC East champions Buffalo head into the playoffs winners of six straight and 13-3 record. The Bills offense has been lighting up scoreboards the past two months and dropped a 50-burger on the Dolphins to tie a bow on their regular season. Josh Allen – who many believe should win NFL MVP honors – helped Bills backers take advantage of an 11-5 ATS record.

Wild Card: Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills Game Info
Date: January 9, 2020, 1:05 p.m. ET
Stadium: Bills Stadium
TV Coverage: CBS
Opening Odds: Bills -6.5 | O/U 52
How to Bet: Best Online Sportsbook Reviews

Line Movement

Buffalo opened as 6.5-point home favorites before a slight tick up to -7. The Colts moneyline opened at +249 and remains near that number, albeit higher. The point total opened and remains 52 at most online sportsbooks we track. The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Bills last 16 games.

Colts News and Notes

Five things to know:

  1. Rookie running back Jonathan Taylor set a Colts franchise record when he rushed for 253 yards against the Jaguars last Sunday. Taylor averaged 78 rush yards per game this season to rank fifth behind Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb and Aaron Jones. The Bills defense allows nearly 120 rush yards per game (17th-rank) should Indy be interested in controlling tempo and shortening the game.
  2. For those wondering if the Colts can win a shootout with the Bills, Indy did post 34 points in wins over Packers and Titans … in back-to-back weeks. They dropped 44 points on the Raiders in Las Vegas a few weeks later.
  3. Through the first month of the season, Indy’s defense appeared to be a top 2-3 unit. However, by season’s end, they drifted back, but remain a top 10 defense on most gamedays.
  4. As was the case in their Week 16 loss to the Steelers, the Colts came out hot and built a comfortable lead. However, as they did against the Steelers, they took their foot off the gas and let the Jaguars creep within six points in the second half.
  5. The Colts force nearly two turnovers per game, while coughs it up 1.4 times per game (rank 20th in giveaways).

Bills News and Notes

Five things to know:

  1. Buffalo’s average scoring margin per game was +7.9 during the regular season, but skyrocketed to +29.3 the last three weeks of the season.
  2. Josh Allen 2-Year Splits:
    1. 2019 Without Stefon Diggs: 58.8% completion percentage, 3,089 passing yards, 20 touchdowns and 9 interceptions.
    2. 2020 With Stefon Diggs: 69.2% completion percentage, 4,544 passing yards, 37 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
  3. Stefon Diggs caught 127 of 166 targets – or 76.5% – from Allen this season.
  4. Buffalo’s opponents scored touchdowns more than 65% of the time once they reached the Bills red zone this season. This ranked 28th out of 32 teams. Buffalo’s defense allowed 3.6 red zone trips per game.
  5. The Bills averaged 16.8 points per game in 2018, 19.6 PPG in 2019 and 31.3 in 2020.

Game Pick – OVER 52 and Colts +7

There’s little doubt in my mind that Josh Allen leads the Bills to their first playoff win since 1995. However, a top 10 defense could pose some challenges where a back-door cover could hit late in the fourth quarter. If Philip Rivers knows one thing from all his years with the Chargers, it’s how to score points late only to have your heart broken in the end.

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