This is it, folks; this is the one that everyone has been waiting for, the 2021 Super Bowl.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will square off with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay’s backyard. The league couldn’t have drawn up a better script.
Aside from a pair of high-flying offenses clashing, this will be the first time in Super Bowl history that a team will battle for the Lombardi Trophy on their own turf.
The last time the Super Bowl was played at Raymond James Stadium was back in 2009 when the Steelers beat the Cardinals in an instant classic. If this game is anywhere near as good as that one, we are in for a treat.
The Chiefs are looking to become the first team to retain the trophy since the Patriots did it back in 2004. And who was the starting quarterback that day for the Patriots? Yes, that’s right, none other than Tom Brady, the Bucs starting quarterback this season.
This is the Chief’s fourth Super Bowl appearance: they won Super Bowl 5 and Super Bowl 54, they lost in Super Bowl 1. The Buccaneers have only ever reached one final, which they won back in 2003 against the Oakland Raiders (Super Bowl 37).
But enough about the past. Let’s take a look at the odds from the top Super Bowl betting sites and find the best bets for 2021.
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Odds for Super Bowl 2021
- Chiefs (-3) -115
- Buccaneers (+3) -105
- Chiefs To Win -175
- Buccaneers To Win +151
- Over 56 Points -105
- Under 56 Points -115
Going back to the first Super Bowl between Kansas City and Green Bay, the betting favorite has won the Super Bowl exactly two-thirds of the time (36/54). The favorite has covered the spread just over 48% of the time (26/54).
In terms of how these two teams have fared ATS in the current season, one side has been far more reliable than the other.
|Team||ATS Record||Cover %|
|Kansas City Chiefs||11-8||57.9|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||8-10||44.4|
With that information in mind, let’s zero in on how to attack the spread for Super Bowl 55.
Betting the Super Bowl 55 Spread
Those of you who fancy the Bucs, be sure to visit the best bookies and shop your price. The odds in the intro are reflected from BetNow, but you’ll see that Tampa is lurking at +3.5 in multiple spots.
|Chiefs||-3 (-115)||-3.5 (-110)||-3.5 (-110)||-3.5 (+100)||-3 (-114)|
|Buccaneers||+3 (-105)||+3.5 (-110)||+3.5 (-110)||+3.5 (-120)||+3 (-106)|
Taking all factors into consideration, I see value in nabbing the Buccaneers and the points at MyBookie or BetUS. 3.5 just feels like too many points to lay to Brady and the Bucs at home. Especially considering the narrow margins that have separated KC and their recent opponents. Excluding the AFC title game versus the Bills, the Chiefs hadn’t beaten anybody by more than six points since way back in week 8.
Kansas City Chiefs Results – Week 9 Through the Divisional Round
|Date||Opponent||Final Score||Margin of Victory|
|1/17/21||vs. Browns||W, 22-17||5|
|1/3/21||vs. Chargers||L, 38-21||17|
|12/27/20||vs. Falcons||W, 17-14||3|
|12/20/20||@ Saints||W, 32-29||3|
|12/6/20||vs. Broncos||W, 22-16||6|
|11/29/20||@ Buccaneers||W, 27-24||3|
|11/22/20||@ Raiders||W, 35-31||4|
|11/8/20||vs. Panthers||W, 33-31||2|
Betting the 2021 Super Bowl Moneyline
This is where things get a bit tricky. As much faith as I have in Bruce Arians’ club, betting against Mahomes is a tough proposition. Along with all of the core starters, Mahomes sat out in the Week 17 loss to the Chargers. In other words, Kansas City has won 12 straight with Mahomes in the lineup and 21 of their last 22.
This includes beating the Bucs in Tampa back in week 12 when Tyreek Hill went absolutely berserk.
Tyreek Hill Against the Chiefs in Week 12
As balanced as the Buccaneers are on both sides of the ball, keeping pace with a unit as explosive as the Chiefs offense isn’t just an uphill climb.
It’s like trying to get to the top of Mount Everest in the dead of winter.
Bank on the Chiefs winning this game and becoming the first back-to-back Super Bowl champ in 17 years.
Betting the Super Bowl Total in 2021
There are two trends to consider when betting the Super Bowl total. The first and most obvious one is, have the Chiefs games been going over or under the total this season? And what about the Buccaneers?
- Over is 9-9 in Chiefs games this season
- Over is 11-8 in Buccaneers games this season
Not a whole lot to glean from that snippet, so let’s shift gears and assess past Super Bowl data.
|Super Bowl||Matchup||Total||Result (Final Score)|
|Super Bowl 54||Chiefs vs. 49ers||53||Under (31-20)|
|Super Bowl 53||Patriots vs. Rams||55.5||Under (13-3)|
|Super Bowl 52||Eagles vs. Patriots||49||Over (41-33)|
|Super Bowl 51||Patriots vs. Falcons||57.5||Over (34-28)|
|Super Bowl 50||Broncos vs. Panthers||43||Under (24-10)|
|Super Bowl 49||Patriots vs. Seahawks||47.5||Over (28-24)|
|Super Bowl 48||Seahawks vs. Broncos||47.5||Over (43-8)|
|Super Bowl 47||Ravens vs. 49ers||48||Over (34-31)|
|Super Bowl 46||Giants vs. Patriots||53||Under (21-17)|
Once again, nothing here too substantial that’s going to dramatically sway us from one side to the other.
What we know is that both of these offenses are high-octane units that can rack up points in bunches. It’s the top-ranked passing team pitted up against the second-ranked passing team, and both secondaries have struggled to contain opposing air attacks.
If there was ever a time for a shootout to pan out, this is that matchup.
With the total breaching 56.5 points already (and climbing), I suggest heading to BetNow and locking in the over (at 56). There’s even a bit of incentive, thanks to only having to lay -105.
Final Thoughts Before Betting on Super Bowl 55
Once the Super Bowl 55 matchup was confirmed, many people spoke about the game being a changing of the guard between two legendary quarterbacks. And they very well could be the case, but there is still plenty of fight left in the old dog yet as this season has proved.
When you analyze each teams’ stats, you can argue that the Buccaneers have the more balanced offense. Tampa Bay certainly has the more dependable group on D. So why are the Chief’s favorites?
Because KC knows how to get it done, and they play well in the big contests.
In games with Patrick Mahomes under center, Kansas City is 38-8.
Ironically, his only playoff loss came against Brady and the Patriots in the 2019 AFC title game.
The Buccaneers offense comes into the game on a roll, having scored 30 plus points in six straight games. While their defense has surrendered plenty of points in their last four games, that doesn’t tell the story of how well they have played. An interception and a fumble recovery set up two of the Bucs touchdowns against the Packers last week. They were constantly applying pressure and penetrating Green Bay’s front, ultimately sacking Rodgers five times.
Also worth noting, Tampa gets a lift with the impending return of Antonio Brown. AB missed the Packers game with a knee injury but is trending toward rejoining the lineup. This is a significant boost as Brown has been in fine form of late, scoring five touchdowns in his previous five games.
On the other side, the talk last week for the Chiefs was if Mahomes would start, and if he did, what sort of state would he be in?
Well, he did start, and he threw 325 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, and was only sacked once. So much for being concerned about #15 in Kansas City.
Defensively, the Chiefs have been excellent recently, and it’s been seven straight games now that they have conceded under 30 points. Unfortunately, the offensive line will go to war without two key players.
Eric Fisher, who tore his Achilles against the Bills, and Mitchell Schwartz, who has been out for a while now with a bad back. That leaves Andy Reid without both of his starting tackles.
To conclude, this game has it all.
History, omens, nostalgia, you name it. Come game day, just sit back, relax, and enjoy the Super Bowl ride.