Accidentally got deleted earlier so posting this again:
Chris Fallica recommended [this bet] (https://twitter.com/chrisfallica/status/1348675904613003267?s=20) today on twitter for tonight’s CFB National Championship. This is quite possibly one of the dumbest suggestions I’ve ever seen. If you think he was being facetious or sarcastic, he’s done this before, and he actually posted it as his official bet on BetSperts or whatever the fuck you call it.
Quote: “In terms of playing this game, I think its lay the 8.5 with Alabama and take OSU on the ML. If it lands on one of those, you profit. I don’t think close Alabama win is in the cards. Either Bama is much better and rolls, or Ohio State wins outright.”
This is massively -EV. Even if you bet $100 on Bama -8.5 (-110) and like $58 on OSU +260 that’s only like a $40-$42 profit and you’re leaving out the chance that Bama wins by one of the most statistically likely margins of victory for a football game: 3,4, and 7 (or by 1-8pts for that matter). The fact that he’s suggesting an 8.5pt polish middle for the CFB national championship game the morning of where the line is almost as sharp as it’ll ever get proves he has no idea what he’s doing. Do not listen to these media guys who while they may have high level knowledge about a certain sport, does not necessarily mean they know shit about how sports betting works. Wow this was dumb.
The sad part about this is that the bet could win and he will use it as a testament that his strategy worked and that his pre-conceived BS notion that either “Bama rolls” or OSU wins in a close game is actually accurate even though that’s not how point distributions work in football at all. Unreal. Picking a side at random and shopping for the best line you could probably get your EV down to like sub -2% or less. What he’s suggesting is -4.74% according to [Captain Jack’s twitter post] (https://twitter.com/capjack2000/status/1348728099475750915?s=20). Yes, somehow Fallica suggested a bet that was actually less expected value than literally blindly betting one of the sides. incredible. Do not listen to these people.
EDIT: If you didn’t pick it up from the post. The point isn’t that I’m recommending a pick or saying that the bet will lose or win. In fact, the bet has like a 76% chance of winning. But You’re actually worse off than had you just bet one side or the other blindly, and that the fact that a gambling “expert” would recommend this is very telling.