One of Todd Pletcher’s top Derby prospects hopes to get back onto the trail, a Godolphin monster becomes derailed, and the top ranked three-year-old in the world is ready to get back to work. Check out top plays and Horse Racing Odds from Kentucky Derby for Saturday, May 1. You can also visit our Online Racebook to place your bets on active racetracks
Kentucky Derby Odds: Prime Factor Looks for Redemption in Fountain of Youth
2021 Kentucky Derby
- When: Saturday, May 1, 2021
- Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
2021 Kentucky Derby Top 10
- Essential Quality +1200
- Life Is Good +1200
- Concert Tour +1200
- Caddo River +1200
- Greatest Honour +1600
- Medina Spirit +1600
- Risk Taking
- Mandaloun +2000
- Proxy +2500
- Roman Centurian +3300
After suffering a setback, Prevalence falls out of Kentucky Derby Top 10
On Saturday, Godolphin had plans to showcase two Kentucky Derby contenders. Essential Quality and Prevalence. Essential Quality will go off the chalk to win the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park.
Prevalence may have gone off the chalk to win the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. But the impressive last-out maiden winning son of Medaglia d’Oro came up with a fever last week that led to a training postponement.
The Brendan Walsh trainee was back on the track this past Monday. However, when it comes to horses in training, especially Triple Crown race prospects, any hiccup can lead to an entire rearrangement of the schedule.
Walsh and Godolphin decided to skip the Fountain of Youth with Prevalence. Because he has a single win under his belt, we dropped the runner from our top 10.
The horse that takes Prevalence’s spot is Roman Centurian. The Simon Callaghan trainee finished second behind Bob Baffert trained Medina Spirit in his last.
Callaghan is pointing Roman to the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita on March 6. He’ll have a shot if he enters. The +3300 choice shows up tenth on our Derby Rankings.
Prime Factor could bounce back to form in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes
All eyes will be on Essential Quality, but the better race could be the Fountain of Youth where Greatest Honour, Tarantino, and Prime Factor resume their rivalry.
Prime Factor entered the Grade 3 Holy Bull the chalk. He left a third place finisher. But before throwing Prime Factor out as your Fountain of Youth winner, realize that the Pletcher runner ran close to a blistering pace. Not only that but it was his first time going two turns.
Greatest Honour should go off the chalk on Saturday. Fire At Will should get overplayed because he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and Mike Maker trains.
Drain the Clock was impressive when winning the Swale Stakes. He’ll get a lot of looks, which means Prime Factor could offer overlay odds. If the Quality Road sired runner does go off at better than fair odds, consider him the top play to win the Fountain of Youth.
Don’t dump on Essential Quality to win the Southwest Stakes on Saturday
Every horseplayer on the planet is tempted to dump their home’s mortgage on Essential Quality to win the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes on Saturday. On paper, he looks like the winner for sure.
The Brad Cox trained and Godolphin owned runner is 3-for-3. One of his wins happened in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. So, yes, there are reasons to bet the proverbial farm.
But this is late February, and the BC Juvenile was on the first Saturday in November. Horses, especially 3-year-olds, can mature quickly but Tapit sired runners like Essential Quality often don’t mature until late May.
Bob Baffert trained Spielberg bounced in his last race. But Bob thinks enough of Spielberg to run him in the Southwest Stakes against Essential Quality. Spielberg can pull off the upset.
So can Jackie’s Warrior. Trained by Steve Asmussen, Jackie’s Warrior was all the rage leading up to the Juvenile. He failed to win but he did finish fourth after running on a blistering pace. If Jackie has matured at all, he’s got a big chance to take the Southwest field gate-to-wire.